What the heck just happened to HoloLens?

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Last Wednesday, on January 18, Microsoft laid off 10,000 employees, or 5% of its workforce. That same day, Bloomberg reported that some of the cuts were targeting the HoloLens hardware team, which had just been moved under Panos Panay in June, 2022 while the software team had been placed under a different organization and the previous head of the HoloLens combined group, Alex Kipman, was maneuvered out of the company.

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Over last week, further announcements on social media indicated how thoroughly Microsoft’s MR and VR commitments had been deracinated. It turned out that the entire MRTK engineering group, which created and maintained the SDK and tools for developing on the HoloLens, had been laid off. This was problematic, because if you remove the team supporting the tools people use to develop on the HoloLens, people will stop developing for the HoloLens. It was hard to see this as an accidental by product of cost cutting moves and easy to see it as part of a larger strategic shift at Microsoft.

Microsoft also laid off the employees of AltSpaceVR, central to its Metaverse ambitions, announcing that the site would be shut down on March 10. Microsoft had acquired AtlSpaceVR in 2017.

Various announcements claimed that the work that had been done at AltSpaceVR would be taken up by the Microsoft Mesh team, which is under the Microsoft Teams organization. At the same time, however, there were rumors going around that up to 80% of the Mesh team had also gotten the axe, including some of their product community evangelists.

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So to sum up, Microsoft cut deep into HoloLens hardware, the MRTK team, the AltSpaceVR business, and its Mesh team. In addition, they pushed out the organizational exec of the HoloLens team in the summer of 2022 and split his people between two other divisions where they no longer had his protection as the head of a Microsoft fiefdom. The HoloLens – and in turn Microsoft’s investment in Mixed Reality and the Metaverse – was probably already dead at that point. There was hope from the HoloLens developer community that they were simply pausing to see how Apple’s MR strategy would pan out. If there was some possibility that a successful marketing push by Apple would encourage Microsoft to move forward with their headsets, those hopes are now dashed. The cuts have been too deep. There will never be a HoloLens 3.

On the bright side…

Microsoft was first out of the gate to set a standard for what high-end augmented reality headsets would be like – even adapting an old unused term, “mixed reality”, to emphasize the difference between phone based AR and what they were doing.

Previously they had done a similar thing with the Kinect by creating a new market for low-cost 3D depth sensors, which in turn created an ecosystem of alternative vendors, which in turn created a supply chain for 3D components as well as competing technology for 3D capture such as photogrammetry and computer vision, which finally led to the world sensing components today that make untethered VR and self-driving cars possible.

With the HoloLens they helped forge a developer community, changed the priorities of 3D game engine companies like Unity and Unreal, provided competition for up and coming MR vendors like Florida-based Magic Leap, tested out the limits of mixed reality scenarios and proofed out the appetite for passthrough AR, used in the Meta Quest Pro, HTC Vive Elite, and the upcoming Apple MR device, while we all wait on advances in waveguide technology and its alternatives.

In a large sense, Microsoft, Alex Kipman, the thousands of people who worked on the Microsoft HoloLens team as well as the thousands of developers who helped to build out MR experiences for enterprise and commercial products, accomplished their mission. They pushed the tech forward.

The truth is, Microsoft has often been extremely good at helping to build out promising technology but has rarely been good at sticking with technology to the viability phase. The biggest example is being early to tablets and phones, realizing they were waaay too early, and then trying to pick them up again after other tech giants had already cornered the market on these devices. With some notable exceptions, like the Xbox, hardware just isn’t Microsoft’s game and they aren’t comfortable with it.

Which is okay since thanks to their work, Meta, Magicleap, HTC, NVidia and others are stepping into the gap that Microsoft is leaving behind. Advances in MR and VR (“metaverse”) tech and experience design will be made at those companies. The laid off HoloLens workers will be snatched up by these other companies and the developer community will adapt to building for these other hardware devices.

While more work needs to be done, the MRTK in both its version 2 and version 3 flavors, provide a good way for MR developers and companies invested in mixed reality to pivot and port to new devices.

Pivot and port

There are several constructive steps that can be taken over the next few months to continue to push MR forward. The first is renaming and refocusing the HoloDevelopers slack community. This has been the most successful and lively meeting spaces over the past six years for sharing mixed reality news, knowledge and gossip. Thank goodness it never got moved over the Teams, as was once proposed. But it does need to be renamed, since it now covers a much broader MR ecosystem than just the Microsoft HoloLens, and it needs some financial support to enable searching of the archives for past, now hidden information, about how to get things done. No one should be re-inventing the wheel simply because we can’t search the archives.

The next thing that needs to be done is to unravel the MRTK situation. In principle the MRTK is an API layer that will target multiple devices. One of the targets of the MRTK developed over the past couple of years is OpenXR, which in turn is also an API layer that targets multiple devices. (It’s confusing, I know, and I’ve been planning to write a Foucauldian analysis of soft power exercised through API dominance for about a year to explain it.)

There are also two versions of the MRTK, v2 and v3, both of which work with OpenXR. In principle, if you have an app that sits on top of MRTK, and it targets OpenXR, then you should be able to repoint your app at another device, such as the various Meta passthrough AR devices or the Magic Leap 2 MR device, and have it mostly work.

Here are some kinks.

  1. An OpenXR implementation requires that particular hardware device vendors create plugins that map the OpenXR API to their particular HMDs. This can be done more or less well. It can be done in its entirety or only partially. Magicleap, for instance, has a beta plugin available for the Unity implementation of OpenXR, but this still isn’t done, yet (please hurry Magicleap!).
  2. There are platform specific features that haven’t been generalized in OpenXR. For instance, Microsoft has a World Locking system that worked with its World Anchors system to make world anchors not drift so much. But the world locking system sits outside of OpenXR.
  3. MRTK3 hasn’t been published in anything other than preview versions. The team has been laid off a couple of weeks before the first planned release.
  4. For this reason, not many apps are using MRTK3. Also for this reason, it is unlikely that anyone will try to port their apps from MRTK2 to MRTK3, which is an untrivial task.
  5. Some have expressed a hope that the community will pick up the work and support of MRTK3, which was an open source project almost exclusively managed and worked on by Microsoft employees. The problem here is that this hasn’t historically happened. Open source projects are rarely community supported, but require someone to be paid to do it. When Microsoft dropped support of the early HoloLens Toolkit in 2017, it was only two independent developers, rather than a large pool of indie devs sharing the work, that did the majority of the labor involved in expanding it and rearchitecting it into MRTK2.
  6. A re-porting strategy is vital for the MR ecosystem to thrive. Startups need to be able to show that they are not hardware dependent and can get up and running again on a new device over the next three to six months.
  7. Additionally, there are hundreds of HoloLens apps, most not on any public store, available to be ported to alternative headset platforms. And every HMD platform currently has a strong need for more apps.
  8. But none of this can happen without a consensus on whether the ecosystem will be adopting MRTK2 going forward or MRTK3. And it can’t happen unless there is an ongoing commitment to support the MRTK source code.
  9. There are two aspects to the MRTK that make it vital to the ongoing progress of mixed reality. I’ve already discussed the importance of a porting strategy.

Hand Interaction Examples 1

The second key feature of the MRTKs is the interaction samples. These are for all practical purposes the best and in some sense only user interfaces available in MR and VR. If you need to enter data or push a button in either mixed reality or the metaverse, these are the tools you should use. They were carefully designed, following user research, but a team at Microsoft led by Julia Schwartz. They are amazing.

But they are also in a big sense reference samples. They need further work to optimize performance and to smooth out usability on a variety of platforms.

It is possible that another company – Unity, Meta, Mgicleap, etc – could step in and develop a new set of tools with ongoing maintenance. But at this point there isn’t.

Summing up

To sum up:

  1. The HoloLens is dead. It has been for about six months.
  2. … but it helped to create a community as well as a device ecosystem that goes on.
  3. The community at HoloDevelopers needs some funding and a second wind, but it has grown organically to be a central repository of knowledge about the development and design of MR apps.
  4. The MRTKs require some hard choices and then a lot of love to make them work well across hardware platforms.
  5. The interaction samples of the MRTKs are a national treasure and also need a lot of love from the community.
  6. We need lots of blog posts and videos covering how to port HoloLens apps to the MQP (Oculus), HTC Elite, Magicleap, and eventually the Apple MR device. In the process we can identify the gaps and issues involved in porting and try to fix them.
  7. Go hug a laid off Microsoft HoloLens employee if you can. I have high confidence they will all land well because they are highly skilled people in a field Microsoft is dropping in favor of generative AI (a reasonable move) but it’s still going to be a tough few months emotionally until they do.
  8. While you are at it, maybe go join the Holodevelopers slack group and hug a non-Microsoft developer, too. They’ll all be fine, too, but its tough to see the work you’ve been doing for the past seven years suddenly drop out from under you.
  9. Off the top of my head, here are some great ones to reach out to: Sean Ong, Joost van Schaik, Dennis Vroegop, Jason Odom, Stephen Hodgson, Simon Jackson, Vincent Guigui, Rene Schulte, Lucas Rizzotto, Andras Velvart, Sky Zhou, Huy Le, Eric Provencher, Lance Larsen, Dwayne Lamb, Charles Poole, Dino Fejzagic, and tons of others I can’t recall right away but that you will hopefully remind me of. They are all heroes.
  10. The ride continues. Just not at Microsoft.

Jon Snow Lives (and how he would do it)

 

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Those watching Game of Thrones on TV just got the last of George R. R. Martin’s big whammies. Book readers have known about this since around 2011. They also have had almost four years to come up with rescue plans for one of their favorite characters. Here are a few that have been worked out over the years. For a series that is famous for killing characters off, there are a surprising number of ways to bring people back in Westeros. Remember, in the game of thrones, you win or you die or you somehow get resurrected. People always forget that last part.

1. Julius Ceasar Jon — dead is dead. Got to throw this out there even though no one really believes it.
2. Jesus Christ Jon — As the Azor Ahai Jon somehow resurrects himself. The best scenario I saw is that they attempt to burn his body but he rises from the ashes.

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3. UnJon — Melisandre does some blood magic to bring Jon back like Thoros brings back Beric Dondarrion. Mel and Thoros worship the same god and use similar magic.
4. Sherlock Holmes Jon — Jon fakes his own death in order to leave the wall.
5. J.R. Ewing Jon — the antecedents are Arya at the twins and Theon’s fake out with Bran’s and Rickon’s bodies at Winterfell — Jon isn’t dead at all and survives his cuts. The narrative and screen cuts just makes us think he’s dead.
6. General Hospital Jon — in a coma.
7. Jon Cleese — just a flesh wound.

8. Do Over Jon — Mel or Wildling medicine restores Jon with no lasting effects. No better or worse than before.
9. Cold Hands Jon — there are good wights, too, after all. In the books, there is a character referred to as Cold Hands who has all the characteristics of a white walker but is helpful.

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10. Other Jon (aka Darth Jon) — and then again, there are bad wights (most of them, in fact). This would be the graying of Jon Snow’s character if he goes over to the dark side, per prophecy and fan theory.
11. Alter-Jon — like the Mace/Rattleshirt switcheroo in the books, someone else has been glamored to look like Jon. The faceless men have this magic, so we know it exists.

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12. Targ Warg Jon — warging runs in the Stark blood. This opens up additional variations:

12a. Ghost Jon — Jon lives out the next season in his wolf Ghost.
12b. Ice Jon — He goes to Ghost but comes back into his own body which is preserved in a frozen state under the Wall.
12c. Wun Wun Jon — From Ghost to a nice new strong body with a simple mind (a book specific theory).
12d. Stannis Jon — From Ghost to Stannis — if Stannis is dead, he won’t be needing his body. Plus this would allow Jon to prosecute his war against the Lannisters, taking up from his brother Rob.
12e. Dragon Jon — Jon goes to Ghost and then into one of Dany’s dragons (or maybe another dragon under the Wall or under Winterfell). Makes him literally the third head of the dragon (you followers of ancient Westeros prophecies know what I’m talkin’ about – yeah you do).

13. Kentucky Fried Jon — like Victarion’s arm (old book history), a healing magic to sustain life through burning.

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14. Frankenstein’s Monster Jon – Qyburn, we discover in the season finally, has basically brought Gregor Clegane back to life (Gregorstein) through some kind of laboratory science. If Jon is put on ice, Qyburn may eventually do the same for Jon. Or mix and match the two, who knows.

Who Killed Joffrey?

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Who poisoned Joffrey Baratheon at the Purple Wedding in the latest episode of HBO’s Game of Thrones?

Tyrion gets blamed for it – which in the logic of television makes him the only person we can absolutely rule out.  The question, then, is who else has a motive for killing Joffrey?

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It could have been Varys, who has loyalties to the previous two regimes and who, in addition, seems sometimes like a fairly decent person – unlike Joffrey.

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Oberyn Martell is another possibility.  He holds a long standing hatred for the House Lannister going back to the murder of his sister Elia, wife of Rhaegar Targaryen, by Gregore Clagane on Tywin’s orders.

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Bronn and Pod, friends of Tyrion, might have done it to help out their BFF.  Joffrey, after all, tried to have Tyrion murdered at the Battle of the Blackwater.  The problem here is that Tyrion was implicated in the end, which would seem to rule out any of his friends being involved.

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Shae offered to take on all of the other Lannisters for Tyrion and would certainly have the nerve to do something like this.  Despite being spurned by Tyrion, however, it still seems unlikely that she would want to create a situation that would get him into further trouble, no matter how angry she is.

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Maester Pycelle is clearly a person who encourages others to underestimate him.  He has no love for Tyrion, who threw him in the dungeons of the Red Keep while acting as the Hand.  He also knows a lot about poisons and was the person who gave out poison to Queen Cersei during the Battle of the Blackwater.

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And of course there’s Melisandre who used the blood of kings – and some leeches — to perform a ceremony she promised Stannis Baratheon would eliminate his enemies: Rob Stark, Joffrey Baratheon and Balon Greyjoy (Balon, father of Theon/Reek, is the only one currently still alive on the show).

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The truth is, however, that far too many people have motives for wanting Joffrey dead.  In CSI Westeros fashion, it may be time to check the forensics and find out who had opportunity as well as motive.  In order to poison Joffrey, the poison would have to get into his golden drinking cup somehow.   The poison couldn’t have been in the carafe of wine since no one else became ill.   So who had access to the cup?

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Additionally, how do you smuggle the poison into a royal wedding?  There must be people checking for such things.  Where would you hide it?

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To get the poison to the wedding and then into the cup, we’re going to work backwards.  As Joffrey is gasping his last, this weird fellow shows up next to Sansa “Stark” Lannister and tells her to come with him if she wants to live.  Who is he?

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Dontos Hollard first showed up at the start of season two in an episode called The North Remembers.  He is a drunk knight whom Joffrey is about to have killed when Sansa uses a ruse to save Dontos’ life.  Joffrey then has him made into the court fool.  (By the way, note the Captain America theme of Dontos’ armor.  There are references to comic book characters throughout Game of Thrones as George R. R. Martin is a big fan of the genre.)

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In the first episode of season four, he shows up in the Godswood where Sansa is spending some quiet time.  He says he wants to thank her for saving his life by giving her an old family heirloom.

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Sansa promises to always wear the necklace.  She in fact wears it to the royal wedding.  Unbeknown to Sansa, this is how the poison is smuggled into the wedding.

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Now lets follow the golden wine cup which, in this scenario, is our smoking gun.  After making an infelicitous joke, Tyrion has wine poured on his head from it and is told that he should come be the king’s cupbearer.  He is, so far, the only person other than Joffrey who has had access to the cup.

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Not willing to let it go, Joffrey then ratchets up the tension by telling Tyrion to kneel.  Tyrion isn’t about to do that.

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Fortunately Margaery Tyrell, Joffrey’s bride, distracts everyone by yelling “Pie!”

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Joffrey drinks up a last sip of pre-poisoned wine.

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Joffrey hands the cup to Margaery.

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Margaery turns around and places it …

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next …

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to the Tyrells – her father and her grandmother, the Queen of Thorns.

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At this point, we know that Margaery can’t poison the wine because she is standing right behind Joffrey as he cuts the slightly undercooked pigeon pie.

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Having chomped down on some of the pie, Joffrey complains that it is dry and once again goes back to his game of having Tyrion play at being his wine bearer.

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Tyrion picks up the now poisoned cup …

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with the Queen of Thorns, Lady Olenna, looking very interested …

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while Tyrion looks very put out …

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and hands it off …

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to the king …

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and things don’t work out well for Joffrey.

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So now that we know when the poison is put in the cup, how did it get there?  You’ll notice in this picture that Sansa, as promised, is wearing the necklace that Dontos gave her.

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Lady Olenna comes by to express her condolences to Sansa.

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If you watch her hands, she plays with Sansa’s hair and then her necklace.  The Queen of Thornes then seems to palm something in her right hand and bring it to the thick folds of her skirt.

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She distracts Sansa from what’s really going on with some simple patter:  “I haven’t had the opportunity to tell you how sorry I was to hear about your brother.  War is war but … killing a man at a wedding — horrid — what sort of monster would do such a thing? As if men need more reasons to fear marriage.”

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Now if you look closely at Sansa’s necklace, you may notice that something is missing.

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Enhance …

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Enhance …

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Enhance …

And just in case you still aren’t completely clear about who killed Joffrey, it was this lady:

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It is also noteworthy that this episode, written by George R. R. Martin himself, marks a turning point in the relationship between the books and the television series.  This is the first time that something only hinted at in the books and still a matter of debate among fans is spelled out explicitly, albeit subtly, in the HBO series.  From now on, readers of the books can no longer be certain of knowing more than tv viewers from week to week.

What Game of Thrones Can Teach Us About Terrorism

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"I felt a great disturbance in the Force, as if millions of voices suddenly cried out in terror …”

Last night’s airing of Game of Thrones season 3 episode 9, The Rains of Castamere, was in many ways the culmination of the “A Song of Ice and Fire” experience.  In the books by G.R.R. Martin, the Red Wedding occurs half way through the third book (there are currently five).  The RW is the primary reason people get their friends to read the book.  According to the producers of the HBO series, it is the episode they felt they had to get to.

In going through the social media related to the Red Wedding, there seemed to be mainly two reactions.  One was the sense of shock, grief and eventually numbness from people who didn’t know it was coming. I well recognize this mental state from the time I read the RW scene almost ten years ago.  The second was the strange elation of people who had already read the books in response to the reaction of the people who hadn’t.

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I wish I could find a word for this second, reflective emotion.  It isn’t exactly schadenfreude, that amazing German word for the the pleasure we take in other people’s misfortune.  Schadenfreude always has an element of ressentiment in it and seems generally directed to people who are better off than us.  The object of our schadenfreude thinks he is an innocent while in our minds, the misfortune is in some way deserved — though perhaps excessive.  Schadenfreude is the emotion Walder Frey feels as he watches the Starks and their bannermen being cut down.

In my bedroom wall, there is a hole made by a very heavy paperback tome. It marks the place where my wife threw her copy of A Storm of Swords against the wall after the Red Wedding scene – and for those more in the know, specifically the scene involving Arya and the Hound’s axe. I hadn’t read it yet and it was at that point my wife made me start with the first book, A Game of Thrones, so I could catch up and find out why there was a hole in our bedroom wall.

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There was a serious angst (‘nother awesome German word but still not the one we want) to her mood and it wouldn’t go away until I’d gotten to the emotional place she wanted me. I wanted to throw the book at the wall, too, but it seemed pointless by then.  The important thing though was she would finally talk to me again and we were on the same page, so to speak.  Oddly enough, we talked about what a great movie these books would make. 

The reflective emotion online was partly a weird glee but also a solicitousness towards those who were experiencing the RW psychic shock for the first time.  It’s as if for those who had already gone through this trauma, the trauma itself presented a barrier between themselves and everyone who was going about their lives in ignorance of the fact that a horrible thing happens in the middle of the third book of this series of books they probably are never going to read because adults don’t read Proust-length fantasy novels.  And then, thanks to the HBO series, now that trauma has been shared with the rest of the world.

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I think the emotional word I’m looking for might be terrorism.  Isn’t this what terrorists do to people who don’t understand or sympathize with their plight?  They find a way to share their trauma with others in order to externalize their angst?

With terrorism, though, we never get to the point where people say, hey, thanks for the bombing, now I see where you’re coming from and everything’s going to be okay.

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Following the airing of The Rains of Castamere, on the other hand, all of us are now on the same page emotionally, are ready for healing, and can move on to the next thing, whether that next thing is the new season of True Blood or possibly a new Gene Wolfe novel.  On the other hand, if you are just interested in connecting with more people who have gone through what you just went through, you can try the online Song of Ice and Fire community at http://asoiaf.westeros.org/

It can be thought of as the largest and longest lasting group therapy session ever created. While I haven’t been back for a while, my wife and I joined it shortly after we created that hole in our bedroom wall and it was the source of much comfort and consolation to us.  It was the place, strangely enough, where some of the casting for the HBO series occurred as well as the best place to learn how to decipher one of the great hidden secret of the series: R+L=J.